Why Ukraine Should Keep Striking Russian Oil Refineries

Washington’s Fears About Energy Markets Are Misplaced. Hitting refineries drives global oil prices down, not up, doing what the West's sanctions and oil price cap have so far failed to do.

A fire at a Russian energy facility after a Ukrainian strike, Yartsevo, Russia, April 2024. Image, Reuters

In a piece for Foreign Affairs, Sam Winter Levy, Lauri Myllyvirta and I address the mistaken belief that Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries drive up global oil prices, risking undermining support for Ukraine in the West.

Ukrainian strikes on refineries - while leaving oil extraction and export facilities untouched - mean that Russia has to export more oil, not less, exerting downward pressure on oil prices. Looking at the data, this is exactly what we see in the market.

While Ukraine’s campaign is not driving up global oil prices, it is inflicting pain on Russia, reducing Russia’s ability to wage its war of aggression and spurring discontent by driving up domestic fuel prices. It is therefore exerting exactly the kind of pressure on Moscow that the U.S.-led sanctions regime and price cap were designed to deliver but have so far failed to do.

Thanks go to Isaac Levi of Helsinki’s Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), who provided data and support.